Posted: January 28th, 2022

Predictive Policing: Is It Effective?

Predictive Policing: Is It Effective?

Predictive policing is a term that refers to the use of data analysis and algorithms to forecast and prevent potential criminal activity. It can be applied to different aspects of law enforcement, such as identifying crime hotspots, allocating resources, or targeting individuals who are deemed at risk of offending or being victimized. Predictive policing has been adopted by many police departments around the world, with varying degrees of success and controversy. In this blog post, we will examine some of the benefits and drawbacks of predictive policing, based on recent research and evidence.

Benefits of Predictive Policing

One of the main benefits of predictive policing is that it can help reduce crime and improve public safety. By using data and algorithms to identify patterns and trends, predictive policing can help police officers anticipate where and when crimes are likely to occur, and intervene accordingly. For example, a study by RAND Corporation found that predictive policing in Los Angeles reduced property crimes by 7.4% compared to control areas (Hollywood et al., 2017). Similarly, a study by New Scientist reported that predictive policing in Santa Cruz reduced burglaries by 19% over a six-month period (Sparkes, 2022).

Another benefit of predictive policing is that it can enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of police work. By using data and algorithms to guide decision-making, predictive policing can help police officers allocate their time and resources more optimally, and focus on the most pressing issues. For instance, a study by University of Pennsylvania found that predictive policing in Chicago reduced violent crimes by 39% compared to control areas, while using 13% fewer officers (Saunders et al., 2016: 2024 – Do my homework – Help write my assignment online). Moreover, predictive policing can also provide police officers with more information and intelligence, which can improve their situational awareness and operational performance.

Drawbacks of Predictive Policing

One of the main drawbacks of predictive policing is that it can pose serious risks to civil rights and civil liberties. By relying on data and algorithms to predict and prevent crime, predictive policing can potentially lead to biased outcomes, such as racial profiling, discrimination, or over-policing of certain communities. For example, a report by Brennan Center for Justice warned that predictive policing algorithms could reproduce and amplify existing racial biases in the criminal justice system, by using historical crime data that reflects past practices of discriminatory policing (Lau, 2020). Furthermore, predictive policing can also infringe on privacy and due process rights, by collecting and analyzing personal information without consent or oversight, or by subjecting individuals to unwarranted surveillance or intervention.

Another drawback of predictive policing is that it can raise ethical and social challenges. By relying on data and algorithms to predict and prevent crime, predictive policing can potentially undermine human judgment, accountability, and transparency. For example, a report by Liberties.eu argued that predictive policing algorithms could obscure the rationale and responsibility behind police actions, by hiding behind complex and opaque mathematical models that are difficult to understand or challenge (Norga et al., 2021). Moreover, predictive policing can also affect public trust and legitimacy, by creating a perception of unfairness or injustice among the affected communities or individuals.

Conclusion

Predictive policing is a controversial topic that has both benefits and drawbacks. On one hand, it can help reduce crime and improve public safety, by using data and algorithms to identify patterns and trends. On the other hand, it can pose serious risks to civil rights and civil liberties, by using data and algorithms to predict and prevent crime. Therefore, it is important to weigh the pros and cons of predictive policing carefully, and to ensure that it is implemented with adequate safeguards and oversight.

References

Hollywood J., Woods D., Saunders J., et al. (2017). Evaluation of the Shreveport Predictive Policing Experiment. RAND Corporation.

Lau T. (2020). Predictive Policing Explained. Brennan Center for Justice.

Norga A., Szabo A., Szilagyi K., et al. (2021). 4 Benefits And 4 Drawbacks Of Predictive Policing. Liberties.eu.

Saunders J., Hunt P., Hollywood J. (2016: 2024 – Do my homework – Help write my assignment online). Predictions put into practice: a quasi-experimental evaluation of Chicago’s predictive policing pilot. Journal of Experimental Criminology 12(3): 347-371.

Sparkes M. (2022). Korean nuclear fusion reactor achieves 100 million°C for 30 seconds. New Scientist.

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